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“With the close higher than the pivot swing number, the market is in a slightly bullish posture. The market’s short-term trend is positive on the close above the nine-day moving average. Zaner’s analysts added in their copper price forecast: “Stochastics are at mid-range but trending higher, which should reinforce a move higher if resistance levels are taken out. “Like other physical commodity markets, the copper market charts have shifted in favor of the bull camp and have managed that action despite an increase in LME copper warehouse stocks last Friday, residual Chinese slowing fears and lingering fear of slumping Chinese copper demand.” On 12 September, technical analysis of copper on the Comex exchange in the US by brokerage Zaner was bullish for the short term price trend of copper: “Given the weekend announcement of spreading lockdowns in China (2 more major cities) the strength in December copper this morning could be a signal that copper prices down at $3.40 represent fundamental value. Try demo Copper price forecast: Should you buy, hold or sell? “Lower prices for some raw materials, notably metals and chemicals, led to the first fall in input costs since May 2020, which led firms to cut their output charges for the fourth month in a row.” Subdued demand conditions led firms to cut back slightly on their purchasing activity and inventory levels, while workforce numbers fell modestly. Production rose at the softest pace for three months, while intakes of new work fell for the first time since May. “China’s manufacturing sector saw a slight deterioration in overall business conditions during August, as power cuts and temporary factory closures weighed on output and sales. In its August report, Caixin highlighted the impact of power cuts on the manufacturing sector: However, “a softer rise in overall new business in July” weighed on the index.
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The Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for China slipped to 49.5 in August, down from 50.4 in July and 51.7 in June, indicating a back-to-back monthly improvement in business conditions. The Fed raised rates by another 75 basis points in July, for the second consecutive month. The London Metal Exchange ( LME) Index recorded its sharpest quarterly drop since the 2008 global financial crisis during the second quarter.Īggressive interest rate rises by central banks, including the US Federal Reserve ( Fed), to tackle 40-year high inflation have increased concerns among traders that the global economy could be facing a hard landing. However, copper prices have retreated by about 25% from their March highs. The pandemic also saw a boom in demand for manufactured goods, including electronics and household appliances, as consumers turned to home entertainment and improvement during lockdowns.Īt the same time as demand has climbed, output from copper mines has not kept pace, tightening the supply balance. Higher crude oil and gas prices are raising operational costs for copper producers, but also accelerating the energy transition and in turn increasing copper demand. The transition to clean energy requires larger quantities of copper for wiring in electric vehicles (EVs) and solar panels. In addition to the recovery in demand after the pandemic, there are several long-term demand trends that have been supportive to copper The COMEX copper price chart shows that the metal climbed by 130% from the March 2020 low at the start of Covid-19 lockdowns to trade up to $5 a pound in early March 2022. On rising demand and tightening supply, prices for copper as well as aluminium, tin and zinc reached record highs in March. Manufacturing plants in Changchun suspended operations and construction work was halted in Shanghai, reducing consumption in the world’s largest copper market.Īt the end of February, traders weighed the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on commodities and stockpiled industrial metals. The price trend of copper was choppy at the start of the year as pandemic-related lockdowns across several regions in China raised concerns about a slowdown in economic growth just as industrial production had ramped up following the Lunar New Year holiday.
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COPPER PRICES TODAY DRIVERS
In this article, we look at the drivers for the recent market volatility, and examine some copper price predictions from a few analysts. Is the current price a buying opportunity, or would a short position on copper be more profitable? US30 US Wall Street 30 (USA 30, Dow Jones)